The past 17 years in Russia have been full of traumatic changes, but perhaps the biggest one is falling from one of the two Great Powers to a hellish backwater spat on by the West. Material suffering is nothing new to Russians, they’ve been genetically programmed to deal with it. What they can’t deal with, however, is the psychological humiliation of the prestige drop from Number One (in a tie) to a third-world country.
Russia has for centuries considered itself a “Great Power,” (Великая Держава), participating first in the empire games of the 1700s and 1800s, and then a military superpower (if economic nightmare) in the 20th century. This was a country that, in their opinion, saved Europe from Napoleon and Hitler, then went toe-to-toe with the United States of America. In their mind, the Cold War didn’t end because America won, but because the Soviet Union decided to stop fighting and give freedom a chance. Instead of having this decision respected, the West treated them like losers, and abandoned their nascent democracy.
A decade of rampant crime, chaos, and social disintegration shamed the country both internally and externally. Not only was Russia not a superpower, but often they were only given a seat at the table out of pity - and they knew it. Perhaps the most frustrating was the fact that Russia no longer had any sway even in its own backyard! The “Near Abroad” or former Soviet Union and Soviet controlled space were now being subsumed into Western structures. First NATO enlarged, then bombed a historic ally, then enlarged again and with it the EU. Russians are paranoid, and possibly with good reason. At their core, the Russian and Soviet empires were expansionist because they felt that the only way to protect the homeland was by having buffer zones, so that when they were attacked, the invaders would have to go through all those other lands first. After the fall of the Soviet Union, they did not only lose control of the buffer zones, but the historical enemy (or “likely enemy” in the Soviet vocabulary “вероятный противник”) was taking control of the lands, and moving closer and closer to Russia’s immediate border.
With Putin, and rising oil prices, Russia began to regain a certain amount of power. As time showed Europe’s dependence on Russian gas, their importance rose even more. Putin’s popularity can be directly traced to the material gains made under him, but also because of the vastly increased prominence that Russia was given in the international arena.
Last summer’s war in Georgia showed how powerless the West was to protect its allies on Russia’s border. They could have gone to Tbilisi, and we likely wouldn’t have done anything about it. In the end, though, they showed their might and destroyed much of the military infrastructure that had been built up in Georgia. Fresh from that victory, and after the election of a man who basically put the world on watch that America was rolling back its influence, Russia decided to help us in that endeavor. They got us kicked out of Kyrgyzstan, and founded a “rapid-reaction force” with the Collective Security Treaty Organization to counter NATO influence in the region.
Obama is playing even more into their hands by promising to back off the missile defense program in Poland and the Czech Republic if Russia promises to help on Iran. The West is more or less united in wanting to pressure Iran, and we should be able to work with them to get Russia on board. Instead, we cave in, showing the world how powerful Russia is becoming - exactly what they want. Medvedev seized perfectly on this to rebuff Obama, saying that “haggling … was not productive.” But welcoming “positive signals” by America to address Russian concerns.
Russia has outplayed us once again. Americans fundamentally don’t understand the importance of narrative in international affairs, and Russians are masters at the game. Learning from necessity during the Soviet Union, the Russians always have great reasons for awful things that they do, Americans always have awful reasons for the great things they do. The missile shield poses absolutely no threat to Russia, but they have succeeded in convincing large parts of Western society that we are sticking our finger in their eye. Russian politicians knowingly and cynically sell this lie to their people, who honestly believe that NATO is gearing up to attack Russia, and they use that fear among their people to boost their claims of grievance. We have every right to build that system (leaving aside the fact that it’s not quite yet proven), and it is a defense against the launching of a rogue missile or two, it in no way threatens Russia’s store of thousands.
Medvedev seized upon Obama’s actions as one of weakness, and doubled down by dismissing him. He played it perfect for his audience, and now we’ll have real trouble gaining back that ground. We look weak. First, we showed that we couldn’t defend our interests in Georgia, then Kyrgyzia, and now we can’t even defend our interest in Europe. Instead of negotiating with Iran from a position of strength, the events of the past few months have put us in a position of waning influence. Have no doubt that Iran will run with this narrative as well. Now, instead of demanding that Iran cease enrichment and development, any meeting will have us begging and groveling. Is this really the change that we had hoped for?
