Though I’m a political scientist by education, as a general rule, I can’t stand the academic field. It’s full of people who make “scientific” claims before an election or political event, and are never held accountable to whether they come true or not. It’s hillarious to read political science journals a few years after they’re published – nothing but wildly innacurate predictions. I’m sure anyone reading this can think of dozens of examples, but one of my favorites was how Gore was supposed to win the Electoral College, and Bush would get the popular vote. That was a given, accepted by nearly everyone. Or how Kerry was winning according to the exit polls. As soon as a political event happens, mistakes are conveniently ignored because we’ve moved on to the next event, and watching on TV those same people who were so egregiously wrong the last time we watched them. Because of this, I have little patience for “rules” and “laws” of political science. Anything can happen, and while it’s fair to compare, trying to divine from the past how the future will turn out is absurd. The “gaming” has already begun on the 2008 election. Here’s a recent selection from Stratfor, a respected private intelligence firm.
“Gaming the U.S. Elections”
By George Friedman
The three rules of American presidential politics since 1960
1. No Democrat from outside the old Confederacy has won the White House since John F. Kennedy.
2. No Republican has won the White House since Eisenhower who wasn’t from one of the two huge Sunbelt states: California or Texas.
3. No sitting senator has won the presidency since Kennedy.
While those statements are factually true, they shouldn’t be taken as carved-in-stone rules of the American electorate.
Therefore, we need to begin handicapping the presidency as we did in 2004, looking for patterns.
We know how well that worked, most people thought Kerry was a slam dunk. Remember “electability?” If proved wrong again, if any of these rules are broken, then the political scientists will all throw their hands up and declare that “a new era of American politics has emerged.” And we’ll all turn on our TV sets to listen to these same people preach about the “new rules.”
The symbol of Antalya is an orange, and there are several fountains around the city that incorporate oranges into the design. Most tourists don’t go into the city, we’re quite a ways out, but we often pass through it on the way to various tourist destinations:
I’m in Turkey right now, enjoying the hospitality of a NATO ally. Nearly every Russian has been to Turkey on vacation, not because they love Turks, but because it’s insanely cheap. I figured that I wouldn’t have the full Russian experience if I didn’t come. Different parts of Turkey seem to be inhabited mainly be people from a particular country. Antaliya, where I am, is the undisputed center of Russian tourism. Tour packages are ridiculously cheap, between $500~800 (3 to 5 stars) per person for a week, which includes airfare, room, and three meals a day. Our charter flight was an IL-86, the Soviet version of a jumbo jet.
I’m sitting right now in a hotel staffed by Turks, but filled by Russians (Belarussians, Ukrainians, etc.). Most of the Turkish staff speaks Russian pretty well. We’ve been to a few tour agencies comparing prices for various trips (all great deals), and they seem to have native Russian speakers on staff. Lots of Central Asians (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzia, etc.). The entire local economy is in United States Dollars. I haven’t come across an exchange point or an ATM all day. The tour operators even say that there’s no reason to change into Turkish Lira. I read an article once that said 60% of all US currency is in circulation outside of the United States. Now I understand what they’re talking about.
Exactly one year ago I left Russia to work in Kazakhstan. It seems much more recent than that. I had just defended my dissertation and had begun looking for a job in Moscow when this opportunity fell in my lap. I worked there for a few months, and decided that it wasn’t for me. I’ve spent the last few traveling around Russia and the Former Soviet Union, and soon it’s back to the States for another real job, though one that I’m very much looking forward to.
People are putting lots of pictures of themselves and their friends on the internet, mainly on sites like Myspace and Facebook. Often, pictures contain acts that may be embarrassing or illegal. I fully support the 5th Amendment, which says we cannot be compelled to testify against ourselves, it’s sort of a guarantee against false confessions. But what about when we voluntarily testify, in the form of documentary evidence placed in the public domain?
Staff at Oxford University are searching the website, collecting photographs of students who they say have broken rules on post-examination celebrations, and handing down fines.
The student union has branded the move a “disgraceful” intrusion into privacy.
How can these people have any expectation of privacy, they put pictures of themselves on the internet!!!!! That’s the digital age equivalent of shouting out from the town square “look at me - I got wasted last night, kissed another girl, had sex with a stranger, and puked in the toilet!!!” Why are people surprised when these pictures come back to haunt them?
In any decent-sized market in the post-Soviet world, you’ll find at least one army surplus/soviet memorabilia stand. Normally they’ll have a pretty good collection of flags, both of the current country and the Soviet times. Here you can see a good example from a market in Tbilisi. On the left is the current Georgian flag, adopted in 2004. Next to it is the flag used from 1990 - 2004. Further down is an assortment of random Soviet banners. Most interestingly, however, is the giant Texaco flag hanging in the second row. I have never seen anything like that on sale at one of the army stands. Though here it seems to fit in perfectly. The color scheme is the same as the current flag, red and white, and it does contain a Soviet red five-pointed star in the middle - it could serve as a link between the current and past flags.
Well, I am after all in Caucasus.
I had some travel problems, and my trip was unfortuantely cut short. A particular policy of the Russian Federation got in the way. I’ll be back in Moscow soon.
My travel plans have run into some serious problems recently due to an absurd Russian political decision. I’m trying to figure out how to get to the next place on my list, without taking an expensive and long detour.
The White House has said the failure of a broad immigration overhaul was proof that Democratic-controlled Capitol Hill cannot take on major issues.
As much as I love to blame Democrats for lots of ridiculous things that they do, this is quite unfair. Bush is conveniently leaving out the fact that there was a huge Republican insurrection on this bill. The “Democratic-controlled Capitol” did not try to take on this issue, Bush did. As we all saw, there were huge problems for support on both sides of the aisle.
I’m still busy travelling, overall having a great time. I have lots of stuff to write about, but no time to write. In the meantime, a friend let me know about a great new site. It’s called WOW Russia!, and it’s full of tons of useful information about the country!
